Model record
How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.
Backtest. Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record. Skill = Brier skill score against always predicting the market's base rate: above 0 beats it, below 0 does worse.
Match result
+3.4%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,693
- 70%+ calls hit
- none made
outright-v2
Goals
+1.9%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,693
- 70%+ calls hit
- 83%of 54,286
goals-v2
Cards
+4.6%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,616
- 70%+ calls hit
- 80%of 18,574
cards-v2
Corners
+0.9%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,601
- 70%+ calls hit
- 71%of 912
corners-v2
Goals · calibration
on the line = honest probabilities
Goals · by market
| Market | Said | Happened | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away team scores | 69% | 70% | +2.2% | |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | +0.7% | |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 93% | +0.6% | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 76% | +1.5% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% | +2.2% | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 30% | +2.7% | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 15% | +2.2% | |
| Home team scores | 77% | 78% | +2.6% |
Goals · by league
20+ matches
| League | Lines | Skill vs base rate | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 9,280 | +7.8% | |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 4,936 | +4.6% | |
| UEFA Champions League | 3,464 | +4.1% | |
| BundesligaGermany | 4,560 | +3.9% | |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 4,520 | +3.5% | |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 3,520 | +3.4% | |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 9,144 | +2.9% | |
| Eerste DivisieNetherlands | 6,224 | +2.8% | |
| La LigaSpain | 5,752 | +2.8% | |
| A-LeagueAustralia | 2,272 | +2.4% | |
| League CupEngland | 600 | +2.2% | |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 648 | +2.1% | |
| Coppa ItaliaItaly | 160 | +1.2% | |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 4,544 | +1.1% | |
| League OneEngland | 9,136 | +1.0% | |
| Serie AItaly | 5,736 | +0.9% | |
| PremiershipScotland | 3,504 | +0.8% | |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 6,872 | +0.8% | |
| League TwoEngland | 8,824 | +0.8% | |
| Ligue 1France | 4,616 | +0.7% | |
| Serie ABrazil | 6,504 | +0.6% | |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 5,840 | +0.6% | |
| Liga MXMexico | 5,464 | +0.4% | |
| ChampionshipEngland | 9,160 | +0.2% | |
| Ligue 2France | 4,688 | +0.2% | |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 4,544 | −0.4% | |
| UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 768 | −0.6% | |
| Serie BItaly | 5,744 | −0.8% | |
| Coupe de FranceFrance | 240 | −1.2% |
Goals · by team
10+ matches
| Team | Lines | Skill vs base rate | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient | 816 | +0.4% | |
| Arsenal | 808 | +2.9% | |
| Sheffield Utd | 808 | +1.3% | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 800 | +4.1% | |
| Charlton | 800 | +1.5% | |
| Real Madrid | 800 | +5.6% | |
| Barcelona | 792 | +16.8% | |
| Inter | 792 | +3.3% | |
| Reading | 792 | −0.2% | |
| Wycombe | 792 | +1.1% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 784 | +5.6% | |
| Blackburn | 784 | +1.1% | |
| Bradford | 784 | +3.3% | |
| Bristol City | 784 | +1.0% | |
| Burton Albion | 784 | +0.9% |
Most-predicted 15 shown · search for any team