Model record
How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.
Backtest. Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record. Skill = Brier skill score against always predicting the market's base rate: above 0 beats it, below 0 does worse.
Match result
+3.4%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,693
- 70%+ calls hit
- none made
outright-v2
Goals
+1.9%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,693
- 70%+ calls hit
- 83%of 54,286
goals-v2
Cards
+4.6%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,616
- 70%+ calls hit
- 80%of 18,574
cards-v2
Corners
+0.9%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,601
- 70%+ calls hit
- 71%of 912
corners-v2
Cards · calibration
on the line = honest probabilities
Cards · by market
| Market | Said | Happened | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 78% | 78% | +3.4% | |
| Over 3.5 cards | 60% | 62% | +4.7% | |
| Over 4.5 cards | 41% | 44% | +5.1% | |
| Over 5.5 cards | 25% | 28% | +4.9% |
Cards · by league
20+ matches
| League | Lines | Skill vs base rate | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coppa ItaliaItaly | 80 | +32.1% | |
| League CupEngland | 300 | +17.5% | |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 2,468 | +12.5% | |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 4,628 | +12.4% | |
| Eerste DivisieNetherlands | 3,100 | +10.5% | |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 3,376 | +8.9% | |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 2,260 | +8.0% | |
| Serie BItaly | 2,868 | +7.3% | |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 2,272 | +7.2% | |
| A-LeagueAustralia | 1,136 | +6.3% | |
| Serie ABrazil | 3,248 | +5.6% | |
| Serie AItaly | 2,864 | +5.0% | |
| UEFA Champions League | 1,708 | +4.3% | |
| League OneEngland | 4,536 | +4.0% | |
| ChampionshipEngland | 4,580 | +2.7% | |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 1,760 | +2.1% | |
| La LigaSpain | 2,876 | +2.0% | |
| Ligue 1France | 2,308 | +1.9% | |
| PremiershipScotland | 1,752 | +1.9% | |
| BundesligaGermany | 2,276 | +1.9% | |
| Liga MXMexico | 2,728 | +1.8% | |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 292 | +1.5% | |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 2,272 | +1.4% | |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 2,920 | +1.3% | |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 4,568 | +0.2% | |
| League TwoEngland | 4,360 | +0.1% | |
| Ligue 2France | 2,336 | −0.3% | |
| UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 372 | −3.4% | |
| Coupe de FranceFrance | 112 | −41.8% |
Cards · by team
10+ matches
| Team | Lines | Skill vs base rate | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 404 | +7.6% | |
| Leyton Orient | 404 | +3.2% | |
| Sheffield Utd | 404 | +4.4% | |
| Charlton | 400 | +4.6% | |
| Real Madrid | 400 | −1.2% | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 396 | +8.4% | |
| Barcelona | 396 | +0.5% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 392 | −0.8% | |
| Blackburn | 392 | +3.0% | |
| Bradford | 392 | −6.6% | |
| Bristol City | 392 | +3.8% | |
| Club Brugge KV | 392 | +2.6% | |
| Inter | 392 | +7.6% | |
| Lincoln | 392 | −2.7% | |
| Middlesbrough | 392 | +7.5% |
Most-predicted 15 shown · search for any team