Model record
How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.
Backtest. Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record. Skill = Brier skill score against always predicting the market's base rate: above 0 beats it, below 0 does worse.
Match result
+3.4%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,693
- 70%+ calls hit
- none made
outright-v2
Goals
+1.9%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,693
- 70%+ calls hit
- 83%of 54,286
goals-v2
Cards
+4.6%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,616
- 70%+ calls hit
- 80%of 18,574
cards-v2
Corners
+0.9%
skill vs base rate
- Matches
- 17,601
- 70%+ calls hit
- 71%of 912
corners-v2
Match result · calibration
on the line = honest probabilities
Match result · by market
| Market | Said | Happened | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win | 33% | 30% | +4.4% | |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Home win | 43% | 44% | +5.1% |
Match result · by league
20+ matches
| League | Lines | Skill vs base rate | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira LigaPortugal | 1,695 | +9.8% | |
| Serie AItaly | 2,151 | +9.3% | |
| PremiershipScotland | 1,314 | +6.2% | |
| La LigaSpain | 2,157 | +6.0% | |
| Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 1,704 | +5.4% | |
| Liga MXMexico | 2,049 | +5.3% | |
| Ligue 1France | 1,731 | +5.2% | |
| EredivisieNetherlands | 1,851 | +5.1% | |
| BundesligaGermany | 1,710 | +5.0% | |
| UEFA Champions League | 1,299 | +4.6% | |
| Coppa ItaliaItaly | 60 | +4.2% | |
| Premier LeagueEngland | 2,190 | +4.1% | |
| Serie ABrazil | 2,439 | +3.2% | |
| Eerste DivisieNetherlands | 2,334 | +2.8% | |
| UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 288 | +2.7% | |
| Serie BItaly | 2,154 | +2.4% | |
| Super LeagueSwitzerland | 1,320 | +2.3% | |
| League OneEngland | 3,426 | +2.1% | |
| Major League SoccerUSA | 3,429 | +2.1% | |
| Ligue 2France | 1,758 | +1.7% | |
| A-LeagueAustralia | 852 | +1.7% | |
| League CupEngland | 225 | +1.7% | |
| Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 3,480 | +1.6% | |
| ChampionshipEngland | 3,435 | +1.3% | |
| Segunda DivisiónSpain | 2,577 | +1.1% | |
| UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 243 | +0.9% | |
| League TwoEngland | 3,309 | +0.8% | |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | 1,704 | +0.2% | |
| Coupe de FranceFrance | 90 | −2.1% |
Match result · by team
10+ matches
| Team | Lines | Skill vs base rate | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient | 306 | −0.6% | |
| Arsenal | 303 | +12.8% | |
| Sheffield Utd | 303 | +5.5% | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 300 | +0.6% | |
| Charlton | 300 | +2.4% | |
| Real Madrid | 300 | +18.6% | |
| Barcelona | 297 | +21.7% | |
| Inter | 297 | +17.8% | |
| Reading | 297 | −0.2% | |
| Wycombe | 297 | +4.5% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 294 | +7.3% | |
| Blackburn | 294 | −4.1% | |
| Bradford | 294 | −0.2% | |
| Bristol City | 294 | +1.6% | |
| Burton Albion | 294 | +2.0% |
Most-predicted 15 shown · search for any team