How it works

Where Dupin's numbers come from, and how they're checked.

1
Data
Results, match stats, lineups, events and referees for every covered competition, updated through the day.
2
Models
Each market has its own model, built only from what was known before kick-off.
3
Fixed at kick-off
Predictions are recorded before the match starts and never changed afterwards.
4
Graded in public
Every prediction is checked against what happened and added to the model record.

The models

Model	Estimates	Built from
Match result	Home win, draw, away win	Form, league position, venue and the competition's usual results
Goals	Total goals, both teams to score, each side to score, goals by half	Each side's attack and defence over its last 50 matches against the league's scoring rate
Cards	Total cards, both teams carded	The referee's record, the league's card rate and both teams' discipline
Corners	Total corners, who wins the corner count	Both sides' corners for and against, at home and away
Players	Goalscorers, shots on target, assists, fouls, bookings	Each player's recent matches, minutes and position, updated when lineups are announced

Reading a probability

A probability is how often an outcome happens in matches like this one. 70% means it should happen roughly seven times out of ten, so three misses in ten is the model working as intended, not failing.

A Top insight is a call that is at least 62% likely and at least 7 points above how often that outcome usually happens, in a market where the model's past record backs it up. Every call that clears that bar is shown, however many there are that day.

Checking the models

Each model is also tested on past seasons, re-predicting every match using only data from before its kick-off. The model record shows both that backtest and the live record, by market, league and team, including where a model does worse than simply guessing the usual rate.

What the numbers are not

They are estimates from past data, not certainties, and not betting advice. Football is uncertain: injuries, red cards and luck aren't in any dataset ahead of time. If you gamble, read our responsible gambling page.